XXVI Convegno Nazionale di Agrometeorologia (L’Aquila, 5-7 Giugno 2024)
Oral presentation on “An operational framework for drought monitoring and forecasting“
In this study, we introduce an innovative framework for monitoring and forecasting drought at the river basin scale. This framework serves various purposes, including contingent assessments, forecasting probabilistic scenarios of water availability, and supporting decision-making processes related to water management. The framework is built upon two foundational components: i) the “Integrated Standardized Drought Index” (𝕯), designed to gauge drought severity by considering precipitation and river levels over the short to medium term; ii) The integration of this index with long-term water memory through a variable termed “Cumulative Deviation from Normal” (CDN); the resulting monitoring variables, namely 𝕯 and CDN, can be used for generating What-if scenarios. As an illustrative example, we apply the framework to the Po River basin. The usability of What-if scenarios is illustrated by showcasing the results for March 2022, marking the onset of the agronomic season during a notably severe drought year. Additionally, we delve into insights on water usage behaviors among Italian farmers in the Po Valley, as observed in the FADN dataset for two contrasting years: 2015 as an example of non-water-stressed conditions and 2022 as a drought-stressed one, to enrich our discussion.
Di Paola A., Di Giuseppe E., Magno R., Quaresima S., Rocchi L., Rapisardi E., Pasqui M.
1IBE – CNR (Institute of BioEconomy of the National Research Council).
Pubblicazione negli Atti del Convegno (pp. 1-5).
