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Drought Situation

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Bollettino Marzo 2026

Ramona Magno
April 17, 2026

Secondo i dati Copernicus, a livello globale Marzo è stato il quarto più caldo dal 1979 rispetto alla media del periodo di riferimento 1991-2020 (vedi grafico). In Europa le anomalie positive del mese sono state le seconde più alte dal 1979, nonostante le temperature sotto media di diverse aree mediterranee. Buona parte dell’Europa continentale è stata interessata da precipitazioni inferiori alla media, mentre le regioni mediterranee centro-occidentali hanno avuto apporti abbondanti tranne l’Italia tirrenica.

Gli apporti nevosi, in termini di Equivalente Idrico Nivale (SWE) alla prima decade di Aprile che segna l’inizio del periodo di fusione, mostrano un deficit a livello nazionale intorno all’11,5%. Un valore che però ha carattere diverso se si guarda alle diverse aree montane. Infatti, mentre sul bacino del Po la stagione si chiude quasi in pari e sugli Appennini addirittura in positivo (+59%) grazie alle nevicate della seconda metà di Marzo, il bacino dell’Adige si ferma a -41% (CIMA Foundation).
Invasi: Le piogge di Marzo, a volte molto intense, sull’Italia meridionale e Adriatico centrale hanno incrementato i livelli di riempimento (vedi mappe) costringendo, in alcuni casi, a rilasciare l’acqua in eccesso.
Grandi laghi del nord Italia: il Garda, il lago di Como e il Maggiore hanno mantenuto altezze idrometriche superiori alla media, con il lago Maggiore che ha sfiorato in diverse occasioni i valori massimi del periodo. Rimane sotto media l’Iseo.

Previsioni per i prossimi mesi

Per quanto riguarda le temperature dell’aria del trimestre Maggio-Luglio 2026, i dati d’insieme dei maggiori centri europei per le previsioni a medio termine danno un segnale positivo su tutta Europa, con le probabilità più alte sulla porzione Mediterranea centro-orientale ed Europa orientale. Anche le temperature superficiali del Mar Mediterraneo dovrebbero mantenersi superiori alla media. Le piogge, non danno segnali chiari ed omogenei.

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E-Planet, servizio “Terra a secco”

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RAI – GEO

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RAI – Punti di vista

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Drought WebGIS

A WebGIS application based on open source solutions customized to integrate different datasets and share maps and graphs of drought indices with researchers, decision-makers and other stakeholders.

Different functions allow to select sections of territory or visualize the trend of the indices in a specific pixel.

Maps and graphs can also be downloaded in png format.

Please Note: Due to the size of the images, it is possible to download sections of the vegetation indices smaller than the whole geographic window.

Please Note: due to problems concerning the Terra MODIS satellite, the TCI and VHI indices are available until the 9th of November 2022. They will be replaced soon with new products.

Drought Scan

The Drought Scan (DS) is an operational climate service for users with different profiles — technicians, researchers, irrigation consortia, and water authorities — who need a clear, consistent, and scalable assessment of drought conditions at the river-basin scale, using tools that are easy to use yet scientifically robust.

For further information, visit the dedicated page.

Drought
is a complex phenomenon

The complexity of the drought phenomenon requires the availability of a system as comprehensive and integrated as possible to respond to the different users requests.

The challenge
Increasing environmental resilience

Heat waves and droughts have significant and growing repercussions on physical, chemical, and biological systems, as well as on socio-economic sectors such as health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and tourism. One of the main challenges in coping with drought is to reduce the temporal gap between the onset and development of a dry period and the response in managing drought-related emergencies. This requires not only robust monitoring systems, but also institutional readiness and coordination across sectors.

A Scientific Proactive approach
Technical support and timely information

Although coping with these extreme events requires effective actions, policymakers and water users often show low levels of preparedness. This may be due to the lack of a proactive approach involving monitoring and forecasting activities, mitigation measures, and public education. As a result, responses are frequently reactive rather than anticipatory. Sharing a scientific and proactive approach — combined with access to both technical support and timely information — can foster more anticipatory responses to extreme events.

A frequent phonomenon

After flooding, it is the second natural disaster that affects the population.

Long term impact

The impact on the environment and human activities can show up late and persist even after the end of the drought event.

High variability

Its intensity and spatial extent are extremely variable.

A creeping phenomenon

With respect to other natural extreme events, drought is characterised by a slow and often difficult to define onset and a long-lasting evolution.

Drought Observatory: the reason why

Drought monitoring supports a better resilience to reduce the impacts of drought events

Drought monitoring and forecasting system

The Institute of BioEconomy of the National Research Council (IBE-CNR) created a system to provide a semi-automatic, detailed, timely and comprehensive operational service. This service, initially developed for Tuscany Region, supports decision makers, water authorities, researchers and general stakeholders.

Integration of ground-based and satellite data

Meteorological stations network, satellite images and models are integrated through an open source and interoperable SDI (Spatial Data Infrastructure) based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS to produce vegetation and precipitation indices to follow the occurrence and evolution of a drought event.

The Indices: Drought occurrences and trends

The system is based on a monitoring component and on a forecasting ones. It uses two type of indices:

direct climate-based indices.
indirect vegetation-based indices

A continuous Work-in-Progress

Spatial Data Infrastructure

New technical improvements in the ICT infrastructure, coupled with scientific advances, allow a timely, ready-to-use and users-specific upgrading of the early warning communication.

SOA | OGC | PostgreSQL

A Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards. Database-centred architecture, with PostgreSQL DataBase Management System.

Innovative Approach

The geographic data flows (from the download of remote sensing and climatic data to the storage of final indices) and all the related geoprocessing functions are integrated in a single environment.

Advanced Statistical Procedures

The integration of the PL/R (R Procedural Language) wrapper into the procedural language of PostgreSQL (PL/pgSQL) allowed the creation of advanced statistical procedures using R engine.