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Drought Situation

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Bollettino Novembre 2025

Ramona Magno
December 17, 2025

Secondo i dati Copernicus, a livello globale questo è stato il terzo Novembre più caldo registrato dal 1979, rispetto al periodo di riferimento 1991-2020. A livello europeo (vedi grafico) gli ultimi 3 anni hanno fatto registrare anomalie costantemente superiori alla media, eccetto Aprile 2025 (-1°C). Le piogge mensili sono state superiori alla media su buona parte della penisola iberica, parte della Francia, Europa orientale, Balcani e soprattutto regioni adriatiche meridionali e coste greche occidentali. In Italia le anomalie negative sono state piuttosto diffuse, con i deficit maggiori nel nordovest.

Gli apporti nevosi, in termini di Equivalente Idrico Nivale (SWE) alla prima decade di Dicembre, indicano un inizio stagione con segno negativo rispetto ai valori tipici del periodo sia sull’arco alpino (-48% circa il bacino del Po e -52% l’Adige) che sugli Appennini (-58% sul bacino del Tevere). (CIMA Foundation).
Invasi: La situazione al sud e sulle isole maggiori continua ad essere critica anche se alcuni invasi hanno beneficiato di precipitazioni locali, come ad esempio in Puglia e Basilicata la diga del Pertusilo o di Occhito, mentre in Sardegna la tendenza è quella della riduzione (vedi mappe).
Grandi laghi del nord Italia: nella prima metà di Dicembre i valori di riempimento si sono mantenuti abbastanza stabili e al di sopra della media nel Lago Maggiore e Garda, il lago di Como ha un trend in lieve flessione e i valori sono sotto media, e l’Iseo, dopo una fase positiva a Novembre, segna una riduzione che lo attesta a valori sotto media.

Previsioni per i prossimi mesi

Per quanto riguarda le temperature dell’aria del trimestre Gennaio-Marzo 2026, i dati d’insieme dei maggiori centri europei per le previsioni a medio termine continuano a dare un segnale positivo su tutta Europa fra il 50 e il 70%, con una probabilità maggiore nei settori mediterranei centro-orientali. Anomalie positive sono previste anche per le temperature superficiali del Mar Mediterraneo (probabilità 70-100%). Per quanto riguarda le piogge, invece, la previsione non risulta sufficientemente robusta per dare un segnale di surplus o deficit chiaro su quasi tutta l’Europa. Anomalie positive sono indicate solo sulla penisola scandinava e il Mediterraneo orientale.

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Drought WebGIS

A WebGIS application based on open source solutions customized to integrate different datasets and share maps and graphs of drought indices with researchers, decision-makers and other stakeholders.

Different functions allow to select sections of territory or visualize the trend of the indices in a specific pixel.

Maps and graphs can also be downloaded in png format.

Please Note: due to problems concerning the Terra MODIS satellite, the TCI and VHI indices are available until the 9th of November 2022. They will be replaced soon with new products.

Please Note: Due to the size of the images, it is possible to download sections of the vegetation indices smaller than the whole geographic window.

Drought Scan

The Drought Scan (DS) is an operational climate service for users with different profiles — technicians, researchers, irrigation consortia, and water authorities — who need a clear, consistent, and scalable assessment of drought conditions at the river-basin scale, using tools that are easy to use yet scientifically robust.

For further information, visit the dedicated page.

Drought
is a complex phenomenon

The complexity of the drought phenomenon requires the availability of a system as comprehensive and integrated as possible to respond to the different users requests.

The challenge
Increasing environmental resilience

Heat waves and droughts have significant and growing repercussions on physical, chemical, and biological systems, as well as on socio-economic sectors such as health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and tourism. One of the main challenges in coping with drought is to reduce the temporal gap between the onset and development of a dry period and the response in managing drought-related emergencies. This requires not only robust monitoring systems, but also institutional readiness and coordination across sectors.

A Scientific Proactive approach
Technical support and timely information

Although coping with these extreme events requires effective actions, policymakers and water users often show low levels of preparedness. This may be due to the lack of a proactive approach involving monitoring and forecasting activities, mitigation measures, and public education. As a result, responses are frequently reactive rather than anticipatory. Sharing a scientific and proactive approach — combined with access to both technical support and timely information — can foster more anticipatory responses to extreme events.

A frequent phonomenon

After flooding, it is the second natural disaster that affects the population.

Long term impact

The impact on the environment and human activities can show up late and persist even after the end of the drought event.

High variability

Its intensity and spatial extent are extremely variable.

A creeping phenomenon

With respect to other natural extreme events, drought is characterised by a slow and often difficult to define onset and a long-lasting evolution.

Drought Observatory: the reason why

Drought monitoring supports a better resilience to reduce the impacts of drought events

Drought monitoring and forecasting system

The Institute of BioEconomy of the National Research Council (IBE-CNR) created a system to provide a semi-automatic, detailed, timely and comprehensive operational service. This service, initially developed for Tuscany Region, supports decision makers, water authorities, researchers and general stakeholders.

Integration of ground-based and satellite data

Meteorological stations network, satellite images and models are integrated through an open source and interoperable SDI (Spatial Data Infrastructure) based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS to produce vegetation and precipitation indices to follow the occurrence and evolution of a drought event.

The Indices: Drought occurrences and trends

The system is based on a monitoring component and on a forecasting ones. It uses two type of indices:

direct climate-based indices.
indirect vegetation-based indices

A continuous Work-in-Progress

Spatial Data Infrastructure

New technical improvements in the ICT infrastructure, coupled with scientific advances, allow a timely, ready-to-use and users-specific upgrading of the early warning communication.

SOA | OGC | PostgreSQL

A Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards. Database-centred architecture, with PostgreSQL DataBase Management System.

Innovative Approach

The geographic data flows (from the download of remote sensing and climatic data to the storage of final indices) and all the related geoprocessing functions are integrated in a single environment.

Advanced Statistical Procedures

The integration of the PL/R (R Procedural Language) wrapper into the procedural language of PostgreSQL (PL/pgSQL) allowed the creation of advanced statistical procedures using R engine.