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Drought Situation

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Bollettino Dicembre 2025

Ramona Magno
January 15, 2026

Secondo i dati Copernicus, a livello globale questo è stato il terzo anno più caldo, sia rispetto al trentennio di riferimento 1991-2020 che al periodo pre-industriale. Inoltre, le temperature globali degli ultimi tre anni (2023-2025) sono state in media superiori di oltre 1,5 °C rispetto al livello preindustriale (1850-1900). Anche a livello europeo il 2025 è stato il terzo più caldo (vedi grafico) dal 1979, mentre Dicembre si attesta al quarto posto, a pari merito con il 2011. Le piogge dell’ultimo mese dell’anno sono state inferiori alla media sull’Europa centrale ed orientale, in particolare sull’arco alpino, versante settentrionale e settore adriatico orientale. In Italia le anomalie negative sono state piuttosto diffuse. I surplus si sono concentrati nella Pianura Padana (Piemonte in particolare), Liguria, Salento e Sicilia meridionale.

Gli apporti nevosi, in termini di Equivalente Idrico Nivale (SWE) a livello nazionale nella prima decade di Gennaio 2026, indicano valori sotto la mediana del periodo 2011-2024 nonostante le nevicate di questo inizio anno. Al nord la zona che sta soffrendo maggiormente è quella orientale (-68% nel bacino dell’Adige), così come alti sono i deficit sugli Appennini meridionali (CIMA Foundation).
Invasi: Nonostante le precipitazioni abbiano portato ad un generale incremento dei livelli, permangono le criticità negli invasi meridionali e delle isole maggiori (vedi mappe).
Grandi laghi del nord Italia: Dopo la prima settimana di Gennaio il lago Maggiore e il Garda si mantengono su livelli leggermente superiori alla media, il lago di Como ha un andamento altalenante, ma attorno alla media, mentre l’Iseo continua la sua ripida discesa ben al di sotto della norma, con un riempimento pari al 24%.

Previsioni per i prossimi mesi

Per quanto riguarda le temperature dell’aria del trimestre Febbraio-Aprile 2026, i dati d’insieme dei maggiori centri europei per le previsioni a medio termine danno un segnale positivo pressochè su tutta Europa, ma con le probabilità più alte sulla porzione centrale e sulle regioni Mediterranee. Anomalie positive sono previste anche per le temperature superficiali del Mar Mediterraneo (probabilità 70-100%). Per quanto riguarda le piogge, invece, la previsione non risulta sufficientemente robusta per dare un segnale di surplus o deficit chiaro su quasi tutta l’Europa. Tuttavia, il centro di previsioni a medio-lungo termine ECMWF indica un segnale di deficit fra Inghilterra, Nord della Francia e Germania (con probabilità 40-50%) e surplus sul Mediterraneo (probabilità 40-50%).

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Drought WebGIS

A WebGIS application based on open source solutions customized to integrate different datasets and share maps and graphs of drought indices with researchers, decision-makers and other stakeholders.

Different functions allow to select sections of territory or visualize the trend of the indices in a specific pixel.

Maps and graphs can also be downloaded in png format.

Please Note: due to problems concerning the Terra MODIS satellite, the TCI and VHI indices are available until the 9th of November 2022. They will be replaced soon with new products.

Please Note: Due to the size of the images, it is possible to download sections of the vegetation indices smaller than the whole geographic window.

Drought Scan

The Drought Scan (DS) is an operational climate service for users with different profiles — technicians, researchers, irrigation consortia, and water authorities — who need a clear, consistent, and scalable assessment of drought conditions at the river-basin scale, using tools that are easy to use yet scientifically robust.

For further information, visit the dedicated page.

Drought
is a complex phenomenon

The complexity of the drought phenomenon requires the availability of a system as comprehensive and integrated as possible to respond to the different users requests.

The challenge
Increasing environmental resilience

Heat waves and droughts have significant and growing repercussions on physical, chemical, and biological systems, as well as on socio-economic sectors such as health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and tourism. One of the main challenges in coping with drought is to reduce the temporal gap between the onset and development of a dry period and the response in managing drought-related emergencies. This requires not only robust monitoring systems, but also institutional readiness and coordination across sectors.

A Scientific Proactive approach
Technical support and timely information

Although coping with these extreme events requires effective actions, policymakers and water users often show low levels of preparedness. This may be due to the lack of a proactive approach involving monitoring and forecasting activities, mitigation measures, and public education. As a result, responses are frequently reactive rather than anticipatory. Sharing a scientific and proactive approach — combined with access to both technical support and timely information — can foster more anticipatory responses to extreme events.

A frequent phonomenon

After flooding, it is the second natural disaster that affects the population.

Long term impact

The impact on the environment and human activities can show up late and persist even after the end of the drought event.

High variability

Its intensity and spatial extent are extremely variable.

A creeping phenomenon

With respect to other natural extreme events, drought is characterised by a slow and often difficult to define onset and a long-lasting evolution.

Drought Observatory: the reason why

Drought monitoring supports a better resilience to reduce the impacts of drought events

Drought monitoring and forecasting system

The Institute of BioEconomy of the National Research Council (IBE-CNR) created a system to provide a semi-automatic, detailed, timely and comprehensive operational service. This service, initially developed for Tuscany Region, supports decision makers, water authorities, researchers and general stakeholders.

Integration of ground-based and satellite data

Meteorological stations network, satellite images and models are integrated through an open source and interoperable SDI (Spatial Data Infrastructure) based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS to produce vegetation and precipitation indices to follow the occurrence and evolution of a drought event.

The Indices: Drought occurrences and trends

The system is based on a monitoring component and on a forecasting ones. It uses two type of indices:

direct climate-based indices.
indirect vegetation-based indices

A continuous Work-in-Progress

Spatial Data Infrastructure

New technical improvements in the ICT infrastructure, coupled with scientific advances, allow a timely, ready-to-use and users-specific upgrading of the early warning communication.

SOA | OGC | PostgreSQL

A Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards. Database-centred architecture, with PostgreSQL DataBase Management System.

Innovative Approach

The geographic data flows (from the download of remote sensing and climatic data to the storage of final indices) and all the related geoprocessing functions are integrated in a single environment.

Advanced Statistical Procedures

The integration of the PL/R (R Procedural Language) wrapper into the procedural language of PostgreSQL (PL/pgSQL) allowed the creation of advanced statistical procedures using R engine.