Drought Central, Drought Observatory by CNR IBE
Drought Situation
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- Ramona Magno
Secondo i dati Copernicus, a livello globale questo è stato il secondo Maggio più caldo registrato dal 1979, rispetto al periodo di riferimento 1991-2020, mentre a livello europeo le temperature, che sono sempre molto più variabili, sono rimaste intorno alla media (-0.3°C).
L’analisi sul trimestre primaverile evidenzia una concomitanza di piogge sotto la media nelle regioni centro-settentrionali europee, temperature sopra la media ovunque tranne che sulla penisola iberica e scarsa umidità dell’aria fra Europa centrale e orientale. Questi tre fattori stanno determinando condizioni di siccità che stanno influenzando le portate della maggior parte dei fiumi europei (eccetto i Paesi che si affacciano sul Mediterraneo centro-occidentale). In media, a livello continentale questa è stata la primavera con i valori più bassi di portata (vedi mappa).
Inoltre, anche sul lungo periodo molti Paesi sono interessati da siccità severo-estrema, con una percentuale più alta sul settore orientale europeo e su Gran Bretagna e Irlanda (mappa interattiva).
- Invasi: I singoli invasi hanno comportamenti diversi a seconda delle zone. Tuttavia, in media, i volumi a Maggio 2025 sono fra il 30% e il 50% rispetto al totale di regolazione in Sicilia, Basilicata e Capitanata, mentre in Sardegna il valore medio si mantiene intorno al 60% (vedi mappe dei principali invasi).
- In merito ai grandi laghi del nord Italia, al 6 Giugno 2025, i valori di riempimento sono tutti ben al di sopra della media, con il lago Maggiore che supera anche il volume massimo per concessione.
- La produzione di energia idroelettrica in Sicilia nella settimana fra il 26 Maggio e il 1° Giugno si assesta al terzo valore più basso degli ultimi 10 anni, ma ben al di sopra del 2024.
Previsioni per i prossimi mesi
Per quanto riguarda le temperature dell’aria del trimestre Luglio-Settembre 2025, i dati d’insieme dei maggiori centri europei per le previsioni a medio termine prevedono valori sopra la media su tutta Europa con una probabilità del 70-100% praticamente ovunque. Stessa probabilità anche per le temperature superficiali del Mar Mediterraneo che dovrebbero restare al di sopra della media per tutto il trimestre. Per quanto riguarda le piogge, la previsione indica, con probabilità del 40-50% periodi più secchi su buona parte dell’Europaeccetto che sulle regioni mediterranee centrali e parte dei Balcani, dove le condizioni dovrebbero essere nella media, che però si riferisce comunque ai mesi più secchi dell’anno.Drought WebGIS
A WebGIS application based on open source solutions customized to integrate different datasets and share maps and graphs of drought indices with researchers, decision-makers and other stakeholders.
Different functions allow to select sections of territory or visualize the trend of the indices in a specific pixel.
Maps and graphs can also be downloaded in png format.
PLEASE NOTE: The WebGIS is currently offline as we are updating the user interface. It will be accessible again by the end of June.
Please Note: Due to the size of the images, it is possible to download sections of the vegetation indices smaller than the whole geographic window.
Please Note: due to problems concerning the Terra MODIS satellite, the TCI and VHI indices are available until the 9th of November 2022. They will be replaced soon with new products.
Drought
is a complex phenomenon
The complexity of the drought phenomenon requires the availability of a system as comprehensive and integrated as possible
to respond to the different users requests.
The challenge
Increasing environmental resilience
Heat waves and droughts have significant and growing repercussions on physical, chemical, and biological systems, as well as on socio-economic sectors such as health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and tourism.
One of the main challenges in coping with drought is to reduce the temporal gap between the onset and development of a dry period and the response in managing drought-related emergencies.
This requires not only robust monitoring systems, but also institutional readiness and coordination across sectors.
A Scientific Proactive approach
Technical support and timely information
Although coping with these extreme events requires effective actions, policymakers and water users often show low levels of preparedness. This may be due to the lack of a proactive approach involving monitoring and forecasting activities, mitigation measures, and public education. As a result, responses are frequently reactive rather than anticipatory. Sharing a scientific and proactive approach — combined with access to both technical support and timely information — can foster more anticipatory responses to extreme events.
A frequent phonomenon
After flooding, it is the second natural disaster that affects the population.
Long term impact
The impact on the environment and human activities can show up late and persist even after the end of the drought event.
High variability
Its intensity and spatial extent are extremely variable.
A creeping phenomenon
With respect to other natural extreme events, drought is characterised by a slow and often difficult to define onset and a long-lasting evolution.
Drought Observatory: the reason why
Drought monitoring supports a better resilience to reduce the impacts of drought events
Drought monitoring and forecasting system
The Institute of BioEconomy of the National Research Council (IBE-CNR) created a system to provide a semi-automatic, detailed, timely and comprehensive operational service. This service, initially developed for Tuscany Region, supports decision makers, water authorities, researchers and general stakeholders.
Integration of ground-based and satellite data
Meteorological stations network, satellite images and models are integrated through an open source and interoperable SDI (Spatial Data Infrastructure) based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS to produce vegetation and precipitation indices to follow the occurrence and evolution of a drought event.
The Indices: Drought occurrences and trends
The system is based on a monitoring component and on a forecasting ones. It uses two type of indices:
- direct climate-based indices.
- indirect vegetation-based indices
A continuous Work-in-Progress
Spatial Data Infrastructure
New technical improvements in the ICT infrastructure, coupled with scientific advances, allow a timely, ready-to-use and users-specific upgrading of the early warning communication.
SOA | OGC | PostgreSQL
A Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards. Database-centred architecture, with PostgreSQL DataBase Management System.
Innovative Approach
The geographic data flows (from the download of remote sensing and climatic data to the storage of final indices) and all the related geoprocessing functions are integrated in a single environment.
Advanced Statistical Procedures
The integration of the PL/R (R Procedural Language) wrapper into the procedural language of PostgreSQL (PL/pgSQL) allowed the creation of advanced statistical procedures using R engine.
