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Drought Central, Drought Observatory by CNR IBE

Drought Situation

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Indice SPI a 24 mesi

Bollettino Ottobre 2025

Secondo i dati Copernicus, a livello globale questo è stato il terzo Ottobre più caldo registrato dal 1979, rispetto al periodo di riferimento 1991-2020, mentre a livello europeo si mantiene al di sotto dei primi 10 ottobre più caldi, grazie a temperature più basse della media che si sono registrate sulle regioni orientali, bacino del Mediterraneo centro-orientale e buona parte del settore centrale. Le piogge sono state superiori alla media su buona parte dell’Europa settentrionale, centrale e soprattutto fra Balcani orientali, Grecia e Ionio. Sotto la media, invece, i valori su tutto l’arco alpino, Spagna settentrionale e Pirenei, sud Della Francia, Tirreno settentrionale e coste adriatiche orientali.
  • Invasi: La situazione continua ad essere critica soprattutto in Puglia e Basilicata, dove in media gli invasi più grossi presentano un riempimento fra il 10% e il 15%. Non è certo migliore la situazione in Sicilia e Sardegna, dove i valori si attestano fra il 30% e il 40% (vedi mappe).
  • In merito ai grandi laghi del nord Italia, al 21 Novembre 2025, i valori di riempimento sono tutti al di sopra della media, tranne il lago di Como, leggermente sotto.
Previsioni per i prossimi mesi
Per quanto riguarda le temperature dell’aria del trimestre Dicembre 2025 – Febbraio 2026, i dati d’insieme dei maggiori centri europei per le previsioni a medio termine prevedono valori sopra la media su tutta Europa fra il 50 e il 70%, con una probabilità maggiore nei settori mediterranei centro-orientali. Anche le temperature superficiali del Mar Mediterraneo risultano mantenere valori al di sopra della media (probabilità 70-100%). Per quanto riguarda le piogge, invece, la previsione sull’Europa e l’Italia non risulta sufficientemente robusta per dare un segnale di surplus o deficit chiaro.

→ Bollettino Settembre 2025

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Drought WebGIS

A WebGIS application based on open source solutions customized to integrate different datasets and share maps and graphs of drought indices with researchers, decision-makers and other stakeholders.

Different functions allow to select sections of territory or visualize the trend of the indices in a specific pixel.

Maps and graphs can also be downloaded in png format.

Please Note: due to problems concerning the Terra MODIS satellite, the TCI and VHI indices are available until the 9th of November 2022. They will be replaced soon with new products.

Go to the Drought webgis

Please Note: Due to the size of the images, it is possible to download sections of the vegetation indices smaller than the whole geographic window.

Drought Scan

The Drought Scan (DS) is an operational climate service for users with different profiles — technicians, researchers, irrigation consortia, and water authorities — who need a clear, consistent, and scalable assessment of drought conditions at the river-basin scale, using tools that are easy to use yet scientifically robust.

For further information, visit the dedicated page.

Dashboard (coming soon)

Drought
is a complex phenomenon

The complexity of the drought phenomenon requires the availability of a system as comprehensive and integrated as possible to respond to the different users requests.

The challenge
Increasing environmental resilience

Heat waves and droughts have significant and growing repercussions on physical, chemical, and biological systems, as well as on socio-economic sectors such as health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and tourism. One of the main challenges in coping with drought is to reduce the temporal gap between the onset and development of a dry period and the response in managing drought-related emergencies. This requires not only robust monitoring systems, but also institutional readiness and coordination across sectors.

A Scientific Proactive approach
Technical support and timely information

Although coping with these extreme events requires effective actions, policymakers and water users often show low levels of preparedness. This may be due to the lack of a proactive approach involving monitoring and forecasting activities, mitigation measures, and public education. As a result, responses are frequently reactive rather than anticipatory. Sharing a scientific and proactive approach — combined with access to both technical support and timely information — can foster more anticipatory responses to extreme events.

A frequent phonomenon

After flooding, it is the second natural disaster that affects the population.

Long term impact

The impact on the environment and human activities can show up late and persist even after the end of the drought event.

High variability

Its intensity and spatial extent are extremely variable.

A creeping phenomenon

With respect to other natural extreme events, drought is characterised by a slow and often difficult to define onset and a long-lasting evolution.

Drought Observatory: the reason why

Drought monitoring supports a better resilience to reduce the impacts of drought events
L'immagine è di supporto alla descrizione fornita nel bollettino

Drought monitoring and forecasting system

The Institute of BioEconomy of the National Research Council (IBE-CNR) created a system to provide a semi-automatic, detailed, timely and comprehensive operational service. This service, initially developed for Tuscany Region, supports decision makers, water authorities, researchers and general stakeholders.
More about Monitoring System

Integration of ground-based and satellite data

Meteorological stations network, satellite images and models are integrated through an open source and interoperable SDI (Spatial Data Infrastructure) based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS to produce vegetation and precipitation indices to follow the occurrence and evolution of a drought event.
More in depth on SDI

The Indices: Drought occurrences and trends

The system is based on a monitoring component and on a forecasting ones. It uses two type of indices:
  • direct climate-based indices.
  • indirect vegetation-based indices
More about indices
A continuous Work-in-Progress

Spatial Data Infrastructure

New technical improvements in the ICT infrastructure, coupled with scientific advances, allow a timely, ready-to-use and users-specific upgrading of the early warning communication.

SOA | OGC | PostgreSQL

A Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards. Database-centred architecture, with PostgreSQL DataBase Management System.

Innovative Approach

The geographic data flows (from the download of remote sensing and climatic data to the storage of final indices) and all the related geoprocessing functions are integrated in a single environment.

Advanced Statistical Procedures

The integration of the PL/R (R Procedural Language) wrapper into the procedural language of PostgreSQL (PL/pgSQL) allowed the creation of advanced statistical procedures using R engine.

Insight into the Spatial Data Infrastructure

Conferences

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